Heatwave, heatwave risk and storm "Floris"... The heavy weather of early August is looming

July started out scorching hot, then cool. It felt like the month had been cut in two. Will August begin on the same footing? Summer isn't over yet, quite the opposite. Heatwave, risk of heatwave, hot spell, and even a storm... The August schedule is packed. Libération takes stock.

Brief but intense. Identified by Météo France analysts, this new heatwave is expected early next week and originates in the Iberian Peninsula. Spain is expected to take on the appearance of a pressure cooker with an accumulation of very hot air and the formation of a veritable heat dome over the country . Blazing sun and very dry air are on the menu for our Spanish neighbors. In Andalusia, temperatures are expected to exceed 42 degrees. Worse in Cordoba and Seville with 45 degrees.

In France, a heatwave is expected on Thursday and will be most intense in the southwest. The heatwave could intensify once it reaches French territory and become scorching as the week progresses, mainly in Occitanie, the southwest, part of the Centre-Val de Loire region, and finally in Hauts-de-France at the end of the week.

Between the Aquitaine basin and the Toulouse region, temperatures are expected to reach 40 degrees Celsius in some areas. If the heat persists overnight, with temperatures reaching at least 21 degrees Celsius, the heatwave threshold could be reached in some departments. This could break records, according to weather analysts.

Even in the Paris region and the Loire Valley, the 30 degree mark will very likely be exceeded.

Maximum temperatures that could exceed seasonal norms by 8 to 10°C. According to the Weather Channel, this rise in temperatures is expected to be particularly oppressive in urban areas, with temperatures much higher in the heart of cities than in the surrounding rural areas. To better prepare for overheating, the Center for Studies and Expertise on Risks, the Environment, Mobility and Planning (Cerema) published an interactive map last May to highlight this urban heat island phenomenon.

Already hit last June by its fiftieth heatwave (since records began in 1947), France is preparing to experience another scorching summer heatwave . Will it also be fueled by climate change? On Monday, June 23, the study published on the website of the Climameter network of scientists noted that the very high temperatures at the end of June across the continent were indeed "exacerbated by human-caused climate change." As for natural climate variability, it "probably played a minor role" in this episode.

Before the storm hits, several French departments are likely to experience a real commotion called Floris. An unusual phenomenon for the season and named by the British Meteorological Office, Storm Floris will primarily hit the United Kingdom between Monday, August 4 and Tuesday, August 5. Northern Ireland, North Wales, Northern England, and all of Scotland will be swept by stormy gusts of up to 130 km/h.

In France, before getting out the shorts and the tired pair of German sandals , you should think about putting on the raincoat. While France should in principle be spared from the storm, some Floris ebbs are expected to hit the coast, including the coasts of Cotentin and the Hauts-de-France region, with forecasts of gusts of up to 90 km/h and scattered rain.